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Debt, Toll Roads and PatentsDean Baker / February 06, 2012
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Parting Ways with the PessimistsThe economists who predicted the housing crisis tend to be a gloomy bunch, as Adam Davidson notes in his latest New York Times Magazine column. Dean Baker is the rare exception. In the following guest post on NPR's Planet Money blog, he explains why he has parted ways with the economic pessimists.
For more than five years before the recession began in December of 2007, I was one of the leading economic pessimists, warning of the housing bubble and the damage that its collapse would do to the economy. I based this pessimism on my analysis of the housing market, not a genetic disposition to pessimism. Given the economy's current situation, I find the warnings of the pessimists – the double-dip gang – to be wrongheaded and seriously counterproductive.
First to the economy's near-term prospects: the economy is growing and will in all probability continue to grow. Economies do generally grow. We see new investment, leading to more employment and higher productivity, which leads to higher profits and higher wages.
In the past when the economy has fallen into a recession it has been the result of plunges in house sales and car sales. Neither possibility seems plausible at the moment, primarily because both remain at extraordinarily low levels that leave little room for them to fall further. Even if they did fall, it would have only a limited impact since current demand is already so depressed.
Dean Baker / February 06, 2012
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Interview with Mark Weisbrot on the Eurozone: Self-Inflicted DepressionMark Weisbrot / February 06, 2012
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The Debt Splits the Left, Because the Media Do Such a Horrible Job of Reporting on Economic IssuesDean Baker / February 06, 2012
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Bill Keller Does not Understand Free Speech, Copyright, and the ConstitutionDean Baker / February 06, 2012
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Latin America and the Caribbean
It Is Brazil's Bloated Financial Sector, not Its Growth, that Attracts ImmigrantsDean Baker / February 05, 2012
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Latin America and the Caribbean
La economía de Brasil podría mejorar con una política industrialMark Weisbrot / February 03, 2012
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Labor Market Policy Research Reports, January 30 – February 3, 2012CEPR and / February 03, 2012
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Strong January Jobs Numbers Result in Drop to UnemploymentDean Baker / February 03, 2012
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Monthly Change in Jobs Since End of RecessionCEPR / February 03, 2012
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Strong Job Growth Leads to Drop in Black/Hispanic UnemploymentDean Baker / February 03, 2012
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The Post Hopes for Job Loss in San Francisco, May be DisappointedDean Baker / February 03, 2012
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Unless We Stop Consuming Manufacturing Goods, or Other Countries Give Us Stuff for Free, Manufacturing Jobs Will IncreaseDean Baker / February 03, 2012
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PDT Survey Looks at Efforts to Improve and Increase Local ProcurementThe surveys reveal that while many Haitian businesses have won contracts or subcontracts since the earthquake, many others have been left out. There is also a severe disconnect in many areas between local contractors and international organizations. While procurement officers were generally supportive of local procurement, the report does not, as the authors point out, provide an idea of the actual level of local procurement taking place since the respondents were primarily organizations that had used the PDT marketplace previously. Explaining this bias the report states, “PDT is a well-known advocate for local procurement in Port-au-Prince, hence those that were willing to take part in a survey from PDT are more likely to support local procurement themselves.”
PDT interviewed 303 Haitian construction companies and while the percentage of those that received a contract from an international organization increased from 25 percent to 45 percent since the earthquake, many reported feeling excluded from the contracting process. For instance, the survey found that “[a]pproximately 43% of the Haitian businesses surveyed believed that international organisations were neither good nor bad for the economy. Eleven per cent even stated that international organisations do the Haitian economy more harm than good.” Only half of Haitian companies believed international organizations were interested in working with local companies. PDT is advocating for a “Haiti First” policy, “in which both the Government of Haiti and the international community agree to procure locally as often as possible and adopt recognised best practices that ensure maximum development impact from local procurement.”
Interestingly, despite their professed preference for local businesses, 67 percent of procurement officers interviewed “do not believe the local market can deliver technical work to the required quality without high levels of supervision and guidance.”
Jake Johnston / February 02, 2012
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Even the Guy Who Dosn't Care About Poor People Wants to Raise the Minimum Wage: Where Does President Obama Stand?CEPR / February 02, 2012