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The Secret Source of Economic Weakness: The Trade DeficitDean Baker / April 09, 2012
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James B. Stewart Declares Himself Clueless About the Ryan BudgetDean Baker / April 08, 2012
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Falling Coverage Rates: One Reason Government Surveys May Not Show a Rise in PovertyDean Baker / April 08, 2012
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Labor Market Policy Research Reports, April 2 – 6, 2012The following papers are highlights this week in labor market policy research:
Center for American Progress
Taking Action on Clean Energy and Climate Protection in 2012: A Menu of Effective and Feasible Solutions
Jason Walsh and Kate Gordon
Center for Economic and Policy Research
Low-wage Workers Are Older and Better Educated than Ever
John Schmitt and Janelle Jones
Center on Budget and Policy Priorities
The Impact of State Income Taxes on Low-Income Families In 2011
Phil Oliff, Chris Mai, and Nicholas Johnson
Tax Foundation Figures Do Not Represent Typical Households’ Tax Burdens: Figures May Mislead Policymakers, Journalists, and the Public
Chuck Marr and Chye-Ching Huang
The Texas Economic Model: Hard For Other States to Follow and Not All It Seems
Elizabeth McNichol and Nicholas Johnson
CEPR and / April 06, 2012
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Sharp Slowdown in March Jobs Numbers, Wages Remain StagnantDean Baker / April 06, 2012
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Job Growth Slows Sharply In March, Unemployment Edges Down to 8.2 PercentDean Baker / April 06, 2012
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More Public Pension Scare Stories at the PostThe Washington Post is always willing to accommodate those who want to make a big issue out of budget deficits. In that spirit it ran a column today by Robert Pozen and Theresa Hamacher warning readers about "public-pension pitfalls."
The piece begins by decrying the fact that almost 80 percent of state and local government employees are still covered by traditional defined benefit pensions even as these pensions are rapidly disappearing from the private sector. This may seem a bizarre complaint to most people.
After all, few workers have been able to accumulate enough in 401(k)s to guarantee themselves any sort of security in retirement. In 2009, the financial wealth for the median household between the ages of 55-64 was only around $50,000, including all 401(k) assets.
Most public sector workers will have some pension income to support them in addition to just being dependent on Social Security. This might be considered a source of security that we would like to see brought back for private sector workers rather than eliminated for public sector workers. Of course this is the Washington Post.
It is also important to remember that close to a third of state and local employees are not covered by Social Security so their public pension will be their only regular source of retirement income. Somehow, Pozen and Hamacher forgot to mention this fact in their piece.
Next we are told that the unfunded liabilities of these plans are $600 billion. This is supposed to sound very scary, since $600 billion is a big number. To make sense of big numbers we need a context.
The planning period for a pension fund is typically 30 years. Over the next 30 years, GDP is projected to be over $400 trillion in today's dollars. This means that the unfunded liability is equal to about 0.15 percent of projected GDP over this period. To make another comparison, relative to the size of the economy it is equal to a bit more than 3 percent of what we are currently spending on the military. Are you scared yet?
Dean Baker / April 05, 2012
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NYT Corrects Story on the Critics of Obama/Romney Care In MassachusettsDean Baker / April 05, 2012
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Reining in Health Care Costs Key to Long-Run DeficitsCEPR / April 05, 2012
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Yet Another 4-Year Low in Weekly Unemployment Claims, as This Week's Number Comes in Above Last Week'sDean Baker / April 05, 2012
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Low-Wage Latino WorkersJohn Schmitt and Janelle Jones / April 04, 2012