Dean Baker
Sacramento Bee, January 25, 2019
Tribune News Service (TNS), January 23, 2019

On January 16th, Rep. Maxine Waters (D–CA), the new chair of the House Financial Services Committee, laid out an extensive agenda in a speech at the Center for American Progress. Greeted by a crowded room of supporters, press, and curious activists, Waters was received warmly as she took her place behind the podium. Before delving into her agenda, Waters offered consolation to the several hundred thousand federal workers currently working without pay or placed on unpaid leave due to the longest government shutdown in US history. Her comforting words fell short of veiling her skepticism toward Trump and his administration, which seemed to echo the emotions and fuel the eagerness for accountability of everyone under her voice.

In an opinion piece in the Washington Post, Andrew Yarrow writes that progressives “seem to assiduously avoid” men’s problems. As examples of men’s problems that progressives avoid, Yarrow points to trends in men’s labor force participation, real median i

Dean Baker
Truthout, January 21, 2019

On January 18, 2019, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released data on union membership for 2018. Using additional analysis of the raw data, this paper discusses recent developments in union membership.

(This piece was originally posted on my Patreon page.)

Jim Tankersley had a nice piece in the New York Times last week pointing out that the tax cut pushed through by the Republicans in 2017 is leading to a sharp drop in tax revenue. While this was widely predicted by most analysts, it goes against the Trump administration’s claims that the tax cut would pay for itself.

Looking at full-year data for calendar year 2018, Tankersley points out that revenue was $183 billion (5.6 percent) below what the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) had projected for the year before the tax cut was passed into law. This is a substantial falloff in revenue by any standard, but there are two reasons the picture is even worse than this falloff implies.

The first is that we actually did see a jump in growth in 2018 pretty much in line with what the Trump administration predicted. The tax cut really did stimulate the economy. It put a lot of money in the economy (mostly going to those at the top) and people spent much of this money. The result was that the growth rate accelerated from around 2.0 percent the prior three years to over 3.0 percent in 2018. (We don’t have 4^th quarter data yet, which may be delayed by the shutdown, but growth should be over 3.0 percent.)

The jump in growth in 2018 means that the drop in revenue was not due to the economy being weaker than expected, it was due to the fact that the tax rate had fallen by a larger amount than the boost to growth. In fairness to the Trump administration, they had also projected a falloff in revenue due to the tax cut in 2018, but not one that was as large as what we saw.

The Blue Wave brings a different perspective to this Congress. It’s an opportunity to generate compelling policy proposals while holding the Administration accountable.

While this is not a comprehensive agenda, CEPR is pleased to share its domestic policy priorities with the change makers of the 116th Congress. These policies reflect the groundbreaking, rigorous research that CEPR uses to benefit workers and their families and to improve economic equity, corporate governance, government oversight, economic performance.

Dean Baker
The American Prospect, January 14, 2019

Dean Baker
The Hankyoreh, January 13, 2019