November 06, 2024
There is not much to be happy about with yesterday’s election results. The Republicans have won the presidency and at least one house of Congress. Trump also has a pliant Supreme Court with little respect for the law or the Constitution. That is not a good picture.
We know lots of really bad things are likely to happen. But we still have to look for ways to minimize the damage and lay the groundwork for a positive path going forward in the future. There are three points that we should keep in mind as we plan strategy.
- Trump’s plans really were unpopular. Repealing the ACA, higher drug prices, inflationary taxes on imports, repealing the CHIPS Act and Inflation Reduction Act, and a nationwide abortion ban are very unpopular policies. That’s why Trump repeatedly downplayed these plans in the campaign.
- Trump is surrounded by completely unprincipled sycophants and grifters. People like RFK Jr., Tulsi Gabbard, Steve Bannon, JD Vance and others have no principled positions. They just want money and power. Remember, Trump pardoned Bannon after he was convicted for ripping off Trump backers. These people will have no problem stabbing each other in the back to advance their standing.
- Trump really is suffering from dementia or at least suffering serious age-related mental impairment. He has trouble completing sentences and he routinely contradicts himself. Someone in full possession of their senses may be able to keep his band of sycophants under control. He is not likely to be able to do this in his last term in office.
The Unpopular Plans
Trump never has to worry about facing voters again, but barring the worst-case scenarios, Republican members of Congress will. People really do value the options for health insurance provided by the ACA. Over 45 million people are either enrolled in the ACA exchanges or benefitting from the expansion of Medicare that was part of the Act.
Also, this is not a constant group of people. People who enrolled in the exchanges this year may have employer-provided insurance next year and vice-versa. This is a program that affects a huge portion of the country. Also, the ban on insurers discriminating against people with pre-existing conditions protects millions of people with heart disease, cancer, or other serious health problems.
For this reason, repealing the ACA is likely to be very unpopular. Vice President Harris had difficulty gaining traction on this issue in large part because voters didn’t believe that Trump really wanted to do it. Whatever Trump actually does want to do with the ACA, many of the people close to him really do want to repeal it. If he does go this route, it will make him and the Republicans in Congress extremely unpopular.
Lowering drug prices, as the Biden-Harris administration began to do with the provisions in the Inflation Reduction Act, is also very popular. In fact, in the campaign, Trump tried to claim credit for a price cap on insulin that Biden had put in place. If Trump carries through with his commitments to the pharmaceutical industry, millions of people will be seeing much higher bills for prescription drugs in the years ahead.
Inflation was a huge issue in the election. Trump will make inflation worse with his plans to impose huge taxes on imports.
The impact on prices will be even larger if he carries through with his plans to deport millions of undocumented workers. This will create huge labor shortages in a number of sectors, most notably agriculture and food processing. That will mean big price increases for the food people buy at the grocery store. That also is not likely to be very popular.
The CHIPS Act and IRA have both created tens of thousands of jobs. In the states and districts where these jobs were created, the gains were touted by politicians of both parties. They will not be happy to see these jobs destroyed to meet a pledge Trump made simply as a matter of ego.
There are many other parts of the Trump agenda which would also likely be hugely unpopular if put into action. RFK Jr.’s plans to eliminate vaccine mandates, and possibly even take back FDA approval for vaccines, will have huge consequences. People don’t like seeing their kids get measles and polio.
It is important to remember that many children are unable to take these vaccines for various reasons. They rely on others taking the vaccine to limit their exposure to the diseases. If we eliminate mandates, we know there will be more cases, and more susceptible children will be exposed to deadly diseases. RFK Jr. also has grand plans to go after processed foods. That idea could have some merit but will likely create a firestorm among the MAGA base.
There is No Honor Among Opportunists
It’s a safe bet that people reaching top positions in any administration are ambitious, but most also have some genuine belief in the mission the administration is pursuing. That does not seem to be the case with many of the people surrounding Donald Trump.
Few would have guessed that when he announced his candidacy last fall that RFK Jr. would end up as one of the most vocal supporters of Donald Trump. Certainly nothing in his past record would suggest much ideological alignment.
There is a similar story with Tulsi Gabbard, who not long ago was a Bernie Sanders Democrat. Steve Bannon may have some serious ideological convictions, but it is worth remembering that his pardon from Trump was for a scheme where he was ripping off Trump supporters. And let’s not forget that JD Vance called Trump “America’s Hitler.”
This list could be extended, but the point here is that these people are interested in getting attention and power and lining their pockets. They do not have a shared mission with Donald Trump or each other. Look for some serious backstabbing from the first days of the administration and likely getting worse as time goes on.
Donald Trump’s Diminished State
While many national political reporters insist that Donald Trump is not suffering from dementia, anyone who even casually watches one of his speeches or press interactions can see that the guy has serious trouble completing sentences or following a train of thought. Trump was clearly never a detail person; odds are that he knew almost nothing about half of his major policy initiatives, but he does need to be able to be the traffic cop that keeps his gang of opportunists and grifters in line.
He didn’t do a great job of this in his first term as can be seen by the large number of people who fled or were fired from his administration. The story is likely to be even worse in this time around as he fills top positions with people whose only qualification is their perceived loyalty to Trump.
It is easy to envision a story where the administration quickly turns into a vipers’ nest and people in Congress rebel in frustration. Also, it is not clear that a lame duck Trump will have as much success in keeping Republican members of Congress in line as one who can still run for another term. Members of Congress will place their own ambitions first and foremost and being tied to a mad Captain Queeg is not likely to help them. This may undermine Trump’s efforts to accomplish some of the worst things on his agenda.
More Hopium?
This may all be wishful thinking. The Democrats suffered a serious defeat yesterday. It wasn’t a landslide, but we can’t minimize the fact that it was a real setback.
But politics is not just a game, billions of lives and the future of the planet are determined by it. We have to look for ways to protect people’s rights and the progress we have made in many areas in the last half century. Despair is not an option.
I will add one more point that goes the other way. The economy right now is doing very well, as I have argued for some time. We have historically low unemployment, inflation is under control, and real wages are rising at a healthy pace. It looks like we are on a faster productivity path, which is a huge deal if sustained.
Just as Donald Trump was lucky in inheriting a fortune from his billionaire father, he is also inheriting a great economy from the Biden-Harris administration. Needless to say, we can count on the media to start touting the positives shortly after Trump takes office and maybe even sooner.
We should all be happy to see tens of millions of workers sharing in the gains of faster productivity growth. Perhaps we can inject a little truth into the conversation and point out that this was the work of the Biden-Harris administration. But this will provide a boost to Trump’s popularity, at least until he does something to seriously mess it up. For better or worse, that seems a fairly good bet.
Comments