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The Americas Blog

El Blog de las Americas

The Americas Blog seeks to present a more accurate perspective on economic and political developments in the Western Hemisphere than is often presented in the United States. It will provide information that is often ignored, buried, and sometimes misreported in the major U.S. media.

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• BoliviaBoliviaElectionsEleccionesLatin America and the CaribbeanAmérica Latina y el CaribeWorldEl Mundo

Escobari and Hoover’s “Difference Estimates” Are Driven by Geography — Not by “Fraud”

By David RosnickDavid Rosnick

November 30, 2022

30 Noviembre 2022

This is the eighth in a series of blog posts addressing a report by Diego Escobari and Gary Hoover covering the 2019 presidential election in Bolivia.
This is the eighth in a series of blog posts addressing a report by Diego Escobari and Gary Hoover covering the 2019 presidential election in Bolivia.

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• BoliviaBoliviaElectionsEleccionesLatin America and the CaribbeanAmérica Latina y el CaribeWorldEl Mundo

Escobari and Hoover’s “Difference Estimates” Must Not Be Taken at Face Value

By David RosnickDavid Rosnick

November 23, 2022

23 Noviembre 2022

This is the seventh in a series of blog posts addressing a report by Diego Escobari and Gary Hoover covering the 2019 presidential election in Bolivia.
This is the seventh in a series of blog posts addressing a report by Diego Escobari and Gary Hoover covering the 2019 presidential election in Bolivia.

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• BoliviaBoliviaElectionsEleccionesLatin America and the CaribbeanAmérica Latina y el CaribeWorldEl Mundo

Escobari and Hoover Are Careless with the Official Data

By David RosnickDavid Rosnick

November 21, 2022

21 Noviembre 2022

Escobari and Hoover calculate party vote shares in a nonsensical manner. While this does not have a large effect on their estimates, it often does matter to their discussion of results.
Escobari and Hoover calculate party vote shares in a nonsensical manner. While this does not have a large effect on their estimates, it often does matter to their discussion of results.

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• BoliviaBoliviaElectionsEleccionesLatin America and the CaribbeanAmérica Latina y el CaribeWorldEl Mundo

Morales’s First-Round Victory Was Predictable — Not “Inexplicable”

By David RosnickDavid Rosnick

November 17, 2022

17 Noviembre 2022

If they find that the late-reporting polling stations showed elevated support for Morales, they are hard-pressed to say that the late reporting caused the elevated support as opposed to any other cause or causes for delay — benign or malicious — inducing
If they find that the late-reporting polling stations showed elevated support for Morales, they are hard-pressed to say that the late reporting caused the elevated support as opposed to any other cause or causes for delay — benign or malicious — inducing

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• BoliviaBoliviaElectionsEleccionesLatin America and the CaribbeanAmérica Latina y el CaribeWorldEl Mundo

Some Observers — Including the OAS — Ignored Critical Biases in Bolivia’s Preliminary Count

By David RosnickDavid Rosnick

November 16, 2022

16 Noviembre 2022

The “shutdown” does not offer a true opportunity for a natural experiment because the “treatment” group is neither plausibly similar to the “control” nor known to be treated in any ordinary sense.
The “shutdown” does not offer a true opportunity for a natural experiment because the “treatment” group is neither plausibly similar to the “control” nor known to be treated in any ordinary sense.

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• BoliviaBoliviaElectionsEleccionesLatin America and the CaribbeanAmérica Latina y el CaribeWorldEl Mundo

The Preliminary Count in Bolivia’s 2019 Election Contained Clear Biases

By David RosnickDavid Rosnick

November 15, 2022

15 Noviembre 2022

Votes were not counted at random and that the problem of counting nickels before dimes is real and must be accounted for when the count is incomplete
Votes were not counted at random and that the problem of counting nickels before dimes is real and must be accounted for when the count is incomplete

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• BoliviaBoliviaElectionsEleccionesLatin America and the CaribbeanAmérica Latina y el CaribeWorldEl Mundo

Nickels Before Dimes: The Blog Posts

By David RosnickDavid Rosnick

November 10, 2022

10 Noviembre 2022

This is the first in a series of blog posts addressing a report by Diego Escobari and Gary Hoover covering the 2019 presidential election in Bolivia.
This is the first in a series of blog posts addressing a report by Diego Escobari and Gary Hoover covering the 2019 presidential election in Bolivia.

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• BoliviaBoliviaElectionsEleccionesLatin America and the CaribbeanAmérica Latina y el CaribeWorldEl Mundo

The Parable of Nickels Before Dimes: A Tale of Two Roommates

By David RosnickDavid Rosnick

November 10, 2022

10 Noviembre 2022

When counting votes in an election, the only thing that matters is the final count. So long as we count all the votes, the order in which we count is unimportant.
When counting votes in an election, the only thing that matters is the final count. So long as we count all the votes, the order in which we count is unimportant.

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• HondurasHondurasLatin America and the CaribbeanAmérica Latina y el CaribeWorldEl Mundo

¿Por qué los EE. UU. condenan a Honduras por combatir la corrupción?

By Brett HeinzBrett Heinz

October 28, 2022

28 10:11:00 Octubre 2022

Si la administración Biden se tomase en serio el abordaje de las causas que son la raíz de la migración forzada en Centroamérica y realmente quisiera apoyar a la democracia constitucional en la región, entonces debería reconocer el fin de las ZEDE como un
Si la administración Biden se tomase en serio el abordaje de las causas que son la raíz de la migración forzada en Centroamérica y realmente quisiera apoyar a la democracia constitucional en la región, entonces debería reconocer el fin de las ZEDE como un

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• HondurasHondurasLatin America and the CaribbeanAmérica Latina y el CaribeWorldEl Mundo

Why Is the US Condemning Honduras For Fighting Corruption?

By Brett HeinzBrett Heinz

October 06, 2022

06 14:15:00 Octubre 2022

If the Biden administration is serious about tackling the root causes of forced migration in Central America and genuinely wants to support constitutional democracy in the region, then it should recognize the end of the ZEDEs as a positive step forward.
If the Biden administration is serious about tackling the root causes of forced migration in Central America and genuinely wants to support constitutional democracy in the region, then it should recognize the end of the ZEDEs as a positive step forward.

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