Beat the Press

Beat the press por Dean Baker

Beat the Press is Dean Baker's commentary on economic reporting. He is a Senior Economist at the Center for Economic and Policy Research (CEPR). To never miss a post, subscribe to a weekly email roundup of Beat the Press. Please also consider supporting the blog on Patreon.

Everyone knows that Amazon founder Jeff Bezos is a genius. After all, he made himself one of the richest people in the world by avoiding the requirement that retailers collect state sales taxes. Yes, Amazon now collects these taxes, but the savings on tax collections in the years it didn’t collect taxes almost certainly exceed Amazon’s cumulative profits since it’s been in business.

While Amazon’s tax avoidance may have been legal, it was 100 percent brain-dead as public policy. In effect, state and local governments were directly subsidizing an Internet giant at the expense of their homegrown mom and pop retail stores. It is very difficult to imagine a world in which this policy makes sense.

Anyhow, the NYT apparently feels some need to carry water for Amazon, implying there is some ambiguity about state efforts to require Amazon to collect taxes for sales of its affiliates. It tells us that states are “thirsty” for unpaid sales taxes, as opposed to trying to correct an abuse of the law that benefits a huge company and one of the richest people in the world at the expense of their own retailers.

It is also very generous in presenting Amazon’s case, explaining that the company is concerned that it could be held liable for taxes that its affiliates fail to properly assess. This is called “too damn bad.” Amazon is making money off its affiliates sales. This means that it carries certain responsibilities for those sales, including that taxes are properly collected. In a market economy, if a company like Amazon can’t conduct its business competently, then it should go under and be replaced by businesses run by people who know what they are doing.

Everyone knows that Amazon founder Jeff Bezos is a genius. After all, he made himself one of the richest people in the world by avoiding the requirement that retailers collect state sales taxes. Yes, Amazon now collects these taxes, but the savings on tax collections in the years it didn’t collect taxes almost certainly exceed Amazon’s cumulative profits since it’s been in business.

While Amazon’s tax avoidance may have been legal, it was 100 percent brain-dead as public policy. In effect, state and local governments were directly subsidizing an Internet giant at the expense of their homegrown mom and pop retail stores. It is very difficult to imagine a world in which this policy makes sense.

Anyhow, the NYT apparently feels some need to carry water for Amazon, implying there is some ambiguity about state efforts to require Amazon to collect taxes for sales of its affiliates. It tells us that states are “thirsty” for unpaid sales taxes, as opposed to trying to correct an abuse of the law that benefits a huge company and one of the richest people in the world at the expense of their own retailers.

It is also very generous in presenting Amazon’s case, explaining that the company is concerned that it could be held liable for taxes that its affiliates fail to properly assess. This is called “too damn bad.” Amazon is making money off its affiliates sales. This means that it carries certain responsibilities for those sales, including that taxes are properly collected. In a market economy, if a company like Amazon can’t conduct its business competently, then it should go under and be replaced by businesses run by people who know what they are doing.

Okay, that’s not quite what the article said. Instead it told readers:

“Republicans have long championed free trade, believing that by allowing markets to operate unhindered, nations can boost domestic industries, lift their wages and improve living standards.”

Wow, so Republicans are motivated by a concern over workers’ living standards. It’s good we have the NYT to tell us this because we certainly wouldn’t know about Republicans’ concern for workers based on their behavior. (Yes, Democrats are politicians too and it is reasonable to assume that politicians of both parties are first and foremost concerned about their re-election, which means appeasing powerful interest groups.)

The piece misrepresents many other issues, especially with its repeated use of the term “free trade.” What exactly about longer and stronger patent and copyright protection is “free trade?” It’s fine that the NYT likes these forms of protectionism and apparently approves of the massive upward redistribution that results from these market interventions, but it is a lie of Trumpian proportions to call them “free trade.”

Also our “free trade” deals have done almost nothing to free up trade in highly paid professional services, like those offered by doctors and dentists. As a result our doctors and dentists are paid roughly twice as much as their counterparts in other wealthy countries.

The piece also notes the rise of populism on the left and right and then incredibly tells readers:

“The fissures over trade are a product of a surge in populism on both the political right and left. …

“Growing anxieties about the unforeseen costs of globalization, the overhang of the financial crisis and the stagnation of the middle class have deeply damaged voters’ faith in the ability of free markets to deliver prosperity — and fractured the Republican Party in the process.”

The costs of globalization were hardly “unforeseen.” Many of us tried as hard as we could to warn of the costs of exposing large segments of the U.S. workforce to competition with much lower paid workers in the developing world. The more appropriate word here would be “ignored,” as in the people in positions of authority deliberately chose to ignore both evidence and the predictions of standard trade theory in pushing trade deals that had the predicted effect of redistributing income upward.

It is also misleading to refer to “free markets” in this context. Trade deals that protect the most highly paid workers, longer and stronger patent and copyright protection, and bailouts of the financial industry when it faces bankruptcy are not characteristics of a free market.

(Yes, all this is covered in my (free) book Rigged: How Globalization and the Rule of the Modern Economy Were Structured to Make the Rich Richer.)

Okay, that’s not quite what the article said. Instead it told readers:

“Republicans have long championed free trade, believing that by allowing markets to operate unhindered, nations can boost domestic industries, lift their wages and improve living standards.”

Wow, so Republicans are motivated by a concern over workers’ living standards. It’s good we have the NYT to tell us this because we certainly wouldn’t know about Republicans’ concern for workers based on their behavior. (Yes, Democrats are politicians too and it is reasonable to assume that politicians of both parties are first and foremost concerned about their re-election, which means appeasing powerful interest groups.)

The piece misrepresents many other issues, especially with its repeated use of the term “free trade.” What exactly about longer and stronger patent and copyright protection is “free trade?” It’s fine that the NYT likes these forms of protectionism and apparently approves of the massive upward redistribution that results from these market interventions, but it is a lie of Trumpian proportions to call them “free trade.”

Also our “free trade” deals have done almost nothing to free up trade in highly paid professional services, like those offered by doctors and dentists. As a result our doctors and dentists are paid roughly twice as much as their counterparts in other wealthy countries.

The piece also notes the rise of populism on the left and right and then incredibly tells readers:

“The fissures over trade are a product of a surge in populism on both the political right and left. …

“Growing anxieties about the unforeseen costs of globalization, the overhang of the financial crisis and the stagnation of the middle class have deeply damaged voters’ faith in the ability of free markets to deliver prosperity — and fractured the Republican Party in the process.”

The costs of globalization were hardly “unforeseen.” Many of us tried as hard as we could to warn of the costs of exposing large segments of the U.S. workforce to competition with much lower paid workers in the developing world. The more appropriate word here would be “ignored,” as in the people in positions of authority deliberately chose to ignore both evidence and the predictions of standard trade theory in pushing trade deals that had the predicted effect of redistributing income upward.

It is also misleading to refer to “free markets” in this context. Trade deals that protect the most highly paid workers, longer and stronger patent and copyright protection, and bailouts of the financial industry when it faces bankruptcy are not characteristics of a free market.

(Yes, all this is covered in my (free) book Rigged: How Globalization and the Rule of the Modern Economy Were Structured to Make the Rich Richer.)

The Republican Tax Bill and Cuts to Social Security

Reductions in Social Security benefits are extremely unpopular across the political spectrum. The program enjoys enormous support among both Democrats and Republicans and people are far more likely to say that benefits should be raised than cut. For this reason, the public should be paying attention to a little noticed provision in the tax bill passed by the House today and which also appears in the bills under consideration in the Senate. In both cases, the basis for indexing tax brackets would be shifted from Consumer Price Index (CPI) to the Chained Consumer Price Index (CCPI). The difference is that the CCPI takes account of when people change their consumption patterns in response to changes in relative prices. The classic example is that beef rises in price and chicken falls, we would expect people to consume less beef and more chicken. The CPI assumes that people don't change their consumption patterns while the CCPI adjusts its basket to assign less importance to beef and greater importance to chicken. For this reason, the CCPI shows a somewhat lower rate of inflation than the CPI. Typically the gap is 0.2–0.3 percentage points. This matters in the tax bill because the cutoff for the tax brackets is adjusted each year by the CPI. If the CCPI is used rather than CPI, then the cutoffs would rise less rapidly. For example, if the cutoff for the 25 percent bracket is $40,000 for a single individual and the CPI showed 2.0 percent inflation, then it would rise to $40,800 for the next year. This means a single person would face a tax rate of 25 percent on income above $40,800. If the CCPI showed an inflation rate of 1.7 percent, then the cutoff would rise to $40,680. This means a single person would face a tax rate of 25 percent on income above $40,680. In a single year, this difference will not mean much, but after 10 years, the difference in the indexes would be between 2.0–3.0 percent and it would grow more through time. This will add a fair bit to many people's tax bills.
Reductions in Social Security benefits are extremely unpopular across the political spectrum. The program enjoys enormous support among both Democrats and Republicans and people are far more likely to say that benefits should be raised than cut. For this reason, the public should be paying attention to a little noticed provision in the tax bill passed by the House today and which also appears in the bills under consideration in the Senate. In both cases, the basis for indexing tax brackets would be shifted from Consumer Price Index (CPI) to the Chained Consumer Price Index (CCPI). The difference is that the CCPI takes account of when people change their consumption patterns in response to changes in relative prices. The classic example is that beef rises in price and chicken falls, we would expect people to consume less beef and more chicken. The CPI assumes that people don't change their consumption patterns while the CCPI adjusts its basket to assign less importance to beef and greater importance to chicken. For this reason, the CCPI shows a somewhat lower rate of inflation than the CPI. Typically the gap is 0.2–0.3 percentage points. This matters in the tax bill because the cutoff for the tax brackets is adjusted each year by the CPI. If the CCPI is used rather than CPI, then the cutoffs would rise less rapidly. For example, if the cutoff for the 25 percent bracket is $40,000 for a single individual and the CPI showed 2.0 percent inflation, then it would rise to $40,800 for the next year. This means a single person would face a tax rate of 25 percent on income above $40,800. If the CCPI showed an inflation rate of 1.7 percent, then the cutoff would rise to $40,680. This means a single person would face a tax rate of 25 percent on income above $40,680. In a single year, this difference will not mean much, but after 10 years, the difference in the indexes would be between 2.0–3.0 percent and it would grow more through time. This will add a fair bit to many people's tax bills.

The Washington Post may have misled readers on the Trump administration’s claims about the impact of its proposed cut in the corporate income tax. It noted the claim that “that more than 70 percent of the corporate tax burden is passed on to U.S. workers.” In fact, it is assuming an amount of growth that would vastly exceed the size of the tax cut. If workers get their share of this growth, well over 100 percent of the tax cut would be passed on in higher wages.

That is how it gets the figure of a $4,000 average gain per household. That would come to approximately $560 billion a year, as compared to a tax cut that will average around $150 billion a year.  

The Washington Post may have misled readers on the Trump administration’s claims about the impact of its proposed cut in the corporate income tax. It noted the claim that “that more than 70 percent of the corporate tax burden is passed on to U.S. workers.” In fact, it is assuming an amount of growth that would vastly exceed the size of the tax cut. If workers get their share of this growth, well over 100 percent of the tax cut would be passed on in higher wages.

That is how it gets the figure of a $4,000 average gain per household. That would come to approximately $560 billion a year, as compared to a tax cut that will average around $150 billion a year.  

University of Maryland economics professor Peter Morici misrepresented the Republican’s proposed change in the mortgage interest deduction in a debate with my friend Jared Bernstein on Morning Edition. Morici said that the proposed cap would only hit people paying more than $500,000 in interest on their mortgage. In fact, it would cap the amount of principal on which interest could be deducted at $500,000.

Morici is correct that this would hit very few people, since it means having an outstanding balance on a mortgage of more than $500,000. Furthermore, the cap only applies to the margin over $500,000. This means that someone with outstanding principal of $540,000 would still be able to deduct the interest on $500,000 or more than 90 percent of their interest payment.

It is only the interest on the last $40,000 that would no longer be deductible. If they are paying 4.0% interest on their mortgage this would mean they are missing a deduction of $1,600, which translates into a tax increase of $400 for someone in the 25 percent tax bracket.

 

Addendum

Budget Geek reminds me in a comment below that current mortgages are grandfathered so they would still be able to deduct interest on principal in excess of $500,000. (There is already a cap at $1 million.) It is only newly issued mortgages that would be subject to the $500k cap.

University of Maryland economics professor Peter Morici misrepresented the Republican’s proposed change in the mortgage interest deduction in a debate with my friend Jared Bernstein on Morning Edition. Morici said that the proposed cap would only hit people paying more than $500,000 in interest on their mortgage. In fact, it would cap the amount of principal on which interest could be deducted at $500,000.

Morici is correct that this would hit very few people, since it means having an outstanding balance on a mortgage of more than $500,000. Furthermore, the cap only applies to the margin over $500,000. This means that someone with outstanding principal of $540,000 would still be able to deduct the interest on $500,000 or more than 90 percent of their interest payment.

It is only the interest on the last $40,000 that would no longer be deductible. If they are paying 4.0% interest on their mortgage this would mean they are missing a deduction of $1,600, which translates into a tax increase of $400 for someone in the 25 percent tax bracket.

 

Addendum

Budget Geek reminds me in a comment below that current mortgages are grandfathered so they would still be able to deduct interest on principal in excess of $500,000. (There is already a cap at $1 million.) It is only newly issued mortgages that would be subject to the $500k cap.

The United States Is Not as Low Tax As It Seems

Eduardo Porter had a good piece noting that the United States is an outlier among rich countries in that it takes in far less tax revenue each year than other wealthy countries. As a result, it provides less in public services like health care and higher education. However, this is an incomplete story. Tax collections are only one way in which the government pays for goods and services. There are three other important mechanisms: 1) patent and copyright monopolies; 2) tax expenditures, and; 3) loan guarantees. While tax collections have increased little over the last three decades, the money committed in these three categories has expanded hugely relatively to the size of the economy over this period. In the case of patent and copyright monopolies, these are mechanisms that the government uses to pay for innovation and creative work as an alternative to direct spending. For example, the United States could spend another $50 billion a year on biomedical research (in addition to the $32 billion it spends through the National Institutes of Health) and take responsibility for developing and testing new drugs. Instead, it tells the pharmaceutical industry to develop drugs and it will give it patents and other types of monopolies so it can recoup its costs.
Eduardo Porter had a good piece noting that the United States is an outlier among rich countries in that it takes in far less tax revenue each year than other wealthy countries. As a result, it provides less in public services like health care and higher education. However, this is an incomplete story. Tax collections are only one way in which the government pays for goods and services. There are three other important mechanisms: 1) patent and copyright monopolies; 2) tax expenditures, and; 3) loan guarantees. While tax collections have increased little over the last three decades, the money committed in these three categories has expanded hugely relatively to the size of the economy over this period. In the case of patent and copyright monopolies, these are mechanisms that the government uses to pay for innovation and creative work as an alternative to direct spending. For example, the United States could spend another $50 billion a year on biomedical research (in addition to the $32 billion it spends through the National Institutes of Health) and take responsibility for developing and testing new drugs. Instead, it tells the pharmaceutical industry to develop drugs and it will give it patents and other types of monopolies so it can recoup its costs.

Yep, that seems to be the point of a major NYT article highlighting increased sales of Canadian lobsters in Europe. The point is that a trade deal between the European Union and Canada eliminated a 7 percent tariff on Canadian lobsters, which remains in place on U.S. lobsters.

To put in some of the perspective that is altogether lacking in this piece, the lobster industry in the United States is a bit under $500 million annually. Or, to put this in some context that might make sense to most NYT readers, it amounts to less than 0.003 percent of US GDP. In other words, the tariff is an issue that might make a difference to a small number of lobster trappers in Maine, but it matters pretty much not at all to the economy. (Actually, the rest of us will pay more for lobster if the tariff on U.S. lobster was eliminated, but the NYT forget to mention this fact.)

Anyhow, the proposed EU–U.S. trade deal, the Trans-Atlantic Trade and Investment Pact (TTIP), actually had very little to do with trade, since trade barriers in almost all areas are already relatively low. The deal was about putting in place a pro-business structure of regulation. Among other things, it would set up special tribunals for investors that would override domestic laws in both the EU and US. It was also protectionist in that it would lock in longer and stronger patent and copyright protections.

Major media outlets, like the NYT, have been strong proponents of this deal using both their news and editorial pages to push it. This piece is an example of a pro-TTIP article that wrongly implies the U.S. is suffering major economic damage as a result of not pursuing TTIP. That is not true.

Yep, that seems to be the point of a major NYT article highlighting increased sales of Canadian lobsters in Europe. The point is that a trade deal between the European Union and Canada eliminated a 7 percent tariff on Canadian lobsters, which remains in place on U.S. lobsters.

To put in some of the perspective that is altogether lacking in this piece, the lobster industry in the United States is a bit under $500 million annually. Or, to put this in some context that might make sense to most NYT readers, it amounts to less than 0.003 percent of US GDP. In other words, the tariff is an issue that might make a difference to a small number of lobster trappers in Maine, but it matters pretty much not at all to the economy. (Actually, the rest of us will pay more for lobster if the tariff on U.S. lobster was eliminated, but the NYT forget to mention this fact.)

Anyhow, the proposed EU–U.S. trade deal, the Trans-Atlantic Trade and Investment Pact (TTIP), actually had very little to do with trade, since trade barriers in almost all areas are already relatively low. The deal was about putting in place a pro-business structure of regulation. Among other things, it would set up special tribunals for investors that would override domestic laws in both the EU and US. It was also protectionist in that it would lock in longer and stronger patent and copyright protections.

Major media outlets, like the NYT, have been strong proponents of this deal using both their news and editorial pages to push it. This piece is an example of a pro-TTIP article that wrongly implies the U.S. is suffering major economic damage as a result of not pursuing TTIP. That is not true.

The NYT had a lengthy article reporting on the Trump administration’s efforts to reverse the movement away from fee for service payments to doctors initiated by the Obama administration. Tom Price, who had been head of the the Department of Health and Human Services, was a central figure in this effort.

At one point the piece tells readers that Price:

“…had fought against what he saw as unnecessary government intervention since his days as a surgeon in the suburbs north of Atlanta.”

While it is possible that Price “saw” the new payment structures as a “unnecessary” government intervention, we might also think that Price was primarily upset about a payment system that would lower his pay and that of other doctors. It’s good that the NYT was able to determine Price’s true motives for us.

The NYT had a lengthy article reporting on the Trump administration’s efforts to reverse the movement away from fee for service payments to doctors initiated by the Obama administration. Tom Price, who had been head of the the Department of Health and Human Services, was a central figure in this effort.

At one point the piece tells readers that Price:

“…had fought against what he saw as unnecessary government intervention since his days as a surgeon in the suburbs north of Atlanta.”

While it is possible that Price “saw” the new payment structures as a “unnecessary” government intervention, we might also think that Price was primarily upset about a payment system that would lower his pay and that of other doctors. It’s good that the NYT was able to determine Price’s true motives for us.

The NYT gave us yet another account of an industry that apparently can’t get enough workers:

“Trucking is a brutal job. Drivers endure long, tedious stretches where they are inactive but have to stay focused, and they spend weeks at a time away from home. For those and other reasons, the industry’s biggest problem has been the scarcity and turnover of drivers, making it hard to keep up with shipping demand.”

According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the average hourly wage for production and nonsupervisory employees in the trucking industry went up 2.4 percent. If it is really the case that the industry can’t get enough drivers, they may try raising the pay. This is at least what the intro econ textbooks would say.

The NYT gave us yet another account of an industry that apparently can’t get enough workers:

“Trucking is a brutal job. Drivers endure long, tedious stretches where they are inactive but have to stay focused, and they spend weeks at a time away from home. For those and other reasons, the industry’s biggest problem has been the scarcity and turnover of drivers, making it hard to keep up with shipping demand.”

According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the average hourly wage for production and nonsupervisory employees in the trucking industry went up 2.4 percent. If it is really the case that the industry can’t get enough drivers, they may try raising the pay. This is at least what the intro econ textbooks would say.

That would appear to the implication of a complaint in a news story that:

“Trump also has spent time during the trip excusing predatory economic behavior of China and other countries and blaming past U.S. administrations for allowing the ‘unfair’ trade imbalances he railed against during the campaign.”

This is an interesting departure from the position the Post had generally taken in both its news and editorial page in the past, which largely derided the view that our pattern of trade was in any way detrimental to the U.S. economy. In particular, the idea that other countries might be managing their currency to maintain large trade surpluses was generally trivialized and those who argued this position were derided as “protectionist.” It is interesting that the Post appears to have completely flipped its position on this point.

That would appear to the implication of a complaint in a news story that:

“Trump also has spent time during the trip excusing predatory economic behavior of China and other countries and blaming past U.S. administrations for allowing the ‘unfair’ trade imbalances he railed against during the campaign.”

This is an interesting departure from the position the Post had generally taken in both its news and editorial page in the past, which largely derided the view that our pattern of trade was in any way detrimental to the U.S. economy. In particular, the idea that other countries might be managing their currency to maintain large trade surpluses was generally trivialized and those who argued this position were derided as “protectionist.” It is interesting that the Post appears to have completely flipped its position on this point.

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