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The NYT had a very good piece pointing out that the bonuses promised by many corporations following the tax cut are often less consequential than they appear. For example, many companies highlighted their maximum bonus amount. This was often a figure (e.g. $1,000) that went to a full-time worker who had been with the company for twenty years or more. At a company like Walmart, very few of their workers would have been there for twenty years and many are part-time. This means that the typical worker would receive much less than the hyped $1,000 bonus.
However, the most remarkable aspect of the bonus game is the fact that a bonus could be tax deductible in 2017 even if it was not paid until 2018. This inexplicable (on policy grounds) quirk in the tax code gave corporate America an enormous incentive to announce bonuses at the end of last year since bonuses announced in 2017 cost much less money than bonuses or pay increases announced and paid in 2018.
If a company like Walmart or AT&T gave its workers $100 million in bonuses or pay increases in 2018 it would cost the company $79 million in after-tax profits, given the new 21 percent corporate tax rate. However, if the same $100 million bonus was announced before the end of 2017 it would only cost the company $65 million in after-tax profits since it could be deducted in a year when the tax rate was 35 percent. (These calculations assume that the companies actually pay the marginal tax rate.)
This means, in effect, that the government would have been paying these companies $14 million to announce a bonus before the end of the year. Since we all believe that companies respond to incentives, it should not be surprising that many announced bonuses before the end of 2017.
The NYT had a very good piece pointing out that the bonuses promised by many corporations following the tax cut are often less consequential than they appear. For example, many companies highlighted their maximum bonus amount. This was often a figure (e.g. $1,000) that went to a full-time worker who had been with the company for twenty years or more. At a company like Walmart, very few of their workers would have been there for twenty years and many are part-time. This means that the typical worker would receive much less than the hyped $1,000 bonus.
However, the most remarkable aspect of the bonus game is the fact that a bonus could be tax deductible in 2017 even if it was not paid until 2018. This inexplicable (on policy grounds) quirk in the tax code gave corporate America an enormous incentive to announce bonuses at the end of last year since bonuses announced in 2017 cost much less money than bonuses or pay increases announced and paid in 2018.
If a company like Walmart or AT&T gave its workers $100 million in bonuses or pay increases in 2018 it would cost the company $79 million in after-tax profits, given the new 21 percent corporate tax rate. However, if the same $100 million bonus was announced before the end of 2017 it would only cost the company $65 million in after-tax profits since it could be deducted in a year when the tax rate was 35 percent. (These calculations assume that the companies actually pay the marginal tax rate.)
This means, in effect, that the government would have been paying these companies $14 million to announce a bonus before the end of the year. Since we all believe that companies respond to incentives, it should not be surprising that many announced bonuses before the end of 2017.
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Mick Mulvaney, the acting director of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB), effectively decided to incentivize ripoff schemes by taking away the enforcement powers of the CFPB division that is charged with blocking such schemes. As fans of free markets everywhere know, if it possible to make money by designing deceptive financial products that rip off low- and moderate-income people, profit-maximizing companies will do it.
Mick Mulvaney, the acting director of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB), effectively decided to incentivize ripoff schemes by taking away the enforcement powers of the CFPB division that is charged with blocking such schemes. As fans of free markets everywhere know, if it possible to make money by designing deceptive financial products that rip off low- and moderate-income people, profit-maximizing companies will do it.
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As I have pointed out repeatedly, the Republicans story about how their corporate tax cut will benefit everyone hinges on the idea that it will kick off a huge round of new investment. In their telling, investment is hugely responsive to tax rates. This means their tax cut will spark an investment boom. The higher levels of investment will increase productivity, which will eventually lead to higher wages.
We got our first weak test of this story with the Commerce Department’s release of advanced data on capital goods orders for December. As I pointed out, these are orders, not deliveries, so fast-moving companies should have been able to get some in before the end of the month.
Even though the tax bill was not signed until almost the end of the year, its passage was virtually certain by the middle of the month. Furthermore, the outlines had been known since Labor Day, so unless a corporation’s management was sleeping on the job, they had four months to plan their response.
As it turned the initial release showed a modest 0.1 percent drop in new orders for capital goods. Today the Commerce Department released its full report on manufacturing orders for January, with more complete data. This showed a 0.5 percent drop in orders for non-defense capital goods (0.4 percent, excluding aircraft).
Perhaps we will see a different story in future months, but so far it doesn’t look like corporate America is feeling inspired to undertake an investment just yet.
As I have pointed out repeatedly, the Republicans story about how their corporate tax cut will benefit everyone hinges on the idea that it will kick off a huge round of new investment. In their telling, investment is hugely responsive to tax rates. This means their tax cut will spark an investment boom. The higher levels of investment will increase productivity, which will eventually lead to higher wages.
We got our first weak test of this story with the Commerce Department’s release of advanced data on capital goods orders for December. As I pointed out, these are orders, not deliveries, so fast-moving companies should have been able to get some in before the end of the month.
Even though the tax bill was not signed until almost the end of the year, its passage was virtually certain by the middle of the month. Furthermore, the outlines had been known since Labor Day, so unless a corporation’s management was sleeping on the job, they had four months to plan their response.
As it turned the initial release showed a modest 0.1 percent drop in new orders for capital goods. Today the Commerce Department released its full report on manufacturing orders for January, with more complete data. This showed a 0.5 percent drop in orders for non-defense capital goods (0.4 percent, excluding aircraft).
Perhaps we will see a different story in future months, but so far it doesn’t look like corporate America is feeling inspired to undertake an investment just yet.
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The Commerce Department gave us more news today indicating that manufacturing isn’t bouncing back like Donald Trump promised. The Commerce Department released its data on construction spending for December.
It turns out that construction of manufacturing plants is down by 11.7 percent from its December 2016 level. It was running at $60,595 million annual pace in December of 2017, down from a $68,624 pace in December of 2016. This probably shouldn’t be a surprise given the $50 billion (0.26 percent of GDP) increase in the size of the trade deficit, but it does go against President Trump’s promises about bringing back manufacturing.
Another noteworthy change was a drop in construction spending on power plants of 10.8 percent. Also, spending on religious facilities fell by 8.3 percent.
The Commerce Department gave us more news today indicating that manufacturing isn’t bouncing back like Donald Trump promised. The Commerce Department released its data on construction spending for December.
It turns out that construction of manufacturing plants is down by 11.7 percent from its December 2016 level. It was running at $60,595 million annual pace in December of 2017, down from a $68,624 pace in December of 2016. This probably shouldn’t be a surprise given the $50 billion (0.26 percent of GDP) increase in the size of the trade deficit, but it does go against President Trump’s promises about bringing back manufacturing.
Another noteworthy change was a drop in construction spending on power plants of 10.8 percent. Also, spending on religious facilities fell by 8.3 percent.
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An NYT article noted that people are more likely to work at home now than in the early part of the last decade and that this is reducing energy usage. Near the end, the piece included this paragraph:
“In addition, between 2003 and 2012 the number of part-time workers in the United States almost doubled, from 4.6 million part time workers to 8.3 million, many of whom are involuntarily part-time workers. “The number of people who are spending time at work is going to go down because you’re sort of swapping out a full-time worker for a part-time worker,” said Dr. Simon. That may be good for energy use, but not necessarily so great for the employee’s wallet.”
The problem is choosing 2012 as an endpoint. The labor market has tightened considerably since 2012. The percentage of workers who report working part-time because they could not find full-time jobs is the same now (3.5 percent) as it was in 2003.
Strangely, the piece ignores the much larger number of workers who choose to work part-time. (The workers say they choose to work part-time, that’s how we know.) In the most recent data, this number stood at 21.1 million workers or 13.9 percent of the labor force.
This is also roughly the same as the share in 2003, but the endpoints conceal an important pattern. Voluntary part-time had dropped considerably until 2014 when the main provisions of the Affordable Care Act. The number of people choosing to work part-time rose from 18.9 million in 2013 to 20.9 million last year, an increase of 10.6 percent. This is presumably due to the fact that people were now able to get insurance without working at full-time jobs.
Addendum
I thought I would add the link to our paper showing that the rise in voluntary part-time is almost entirely among young parents, the people who we would expect health care insurance to be most important to. Also, just to give numbers here, taking averages for the last three months (single month data is erratic) the number of people reporting that they are working part-time for non-economic reasons rose by 291,000 from the last three months of 2011 to 2012, then fell by 38,000 the following year. In the first year the ACA was fully in effect it rose by 1,043,000.
An NYT article noted that people are more likely to work at home now than in the early part of the last decade and that this is reducing energy usage. Near the end, the piece included this paragraph:
“In addition, between 2003 and 2012 the number of part-time workers in the United States almost doubled, from 4.6 million part time workers to 8.3 million, many of whom are involuntarily part-time workers. “The number of people who are spending time at work is going to go down because you’re sort of swapping out a full-time worker for a part-time worker,” said Dr. Simon. That may be good for energy use, but not necessarily so great for the employee’s wallet.”
The problem is choosing 2012 as an endpoint. The labor market has tightened considerably since 2012. The percentage of workers who report working part-time because they could not find full-time jobs is the same now (3.5 percent) as it was in 2003.
Strangely, the piece ignores the much larger number of workers who choose to work part-time. (The workers say they choose to work part-time, that’s how we know.) In the most recent data, this number stood at 21.1 million workers or 13.9 percent of the labor force.
This is also roughly the same as the share in 2003, but the endpoints conceal an important pattern. Voluntary part-time had dropped considerably until 2014 when the main provisions of the Affordable Care Act. The number of people choosing to work part-time rose from 18.9 million in 2013 to 20.9 million last year, an increase of 10.6 percent. This is presumably due to the fact that people were now able to get insurance without working at full-time jobs.
Addendum
I thought I would add the link to our paper showing that the rise in voluntary part-time is almost entirely among young parents, the people who we would expect health care insurance to be most important to. Also, just to give numbers here, taking averages for the last three months (single month data is erratic) the number of people reporting that they are working part-time for non-economic reasons rose by 291,000 from the last three months of 2011 to 2012, then fell by 38,000 the following year. In the first year the ACA was fully in effect it rose by 1,043,000.
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Some folks may have been impressed with Donald Trump’s plan for $1.5 trillion in infrastructure spending over the next decade. This is both because they have little sense of the size of the economy and also because they don’t realize that he is not proposing for most of this spending to come from the federal government.
While he didn’t lay out a specific plan, past documents indicate that he wants the federal government to increase spending by $200 billion, with the rest coming from state and local governments, as well as private investors. Since GDP is projected to be almost $240 trillion over the decade, Trump is proposing to spend an amount equal to a bit more than 0.08 percent of projected GDP.
Some folks may have been impressed with Donald Trump’s plan for $1.5 trillion in infrastructure spending over the next decade. This is both because they have little sense of the size of the economy and also because they don’t realize that he is not proposing for most of this spending to come from the federal government.
While he didn’t lay out a specific plan, past documents indicate that he wants the federal government to increase spending by $200 billion, with the rest coming from state and local governments, as well as private investors. Since GDP is projected to be almost $240 trillion over the decade, Trump is proposing to spend an amount equal to a bit more than 0.08 percent of projected GDP.
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